456 LAUNCHES. 912 LANDINGS. ANY HOUR, MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THAT IS THE STARBASE PLAN THE FAA IS STUDYING.
25 launches a year. That is what SpaceX is allowed to fly from Starbase today.
456 is the number the company wants the federal government to study.
On Saturday afternoon, South Texas got a sample of what the gap between those two numbers could sound like.
At about 3:20 p.m., Starship's upper stage came back from orbit and was caught by the launch tower at Starbase. It was the first time SpaceX has recovered a Starship upper stage. The ship had circled the Earth 14 times in a little more than 22 hours, according to ValleyCentral.
The boom traveled. ValleyCentral reported it was heard at least 30 miles from the pad. Then came Laredo. Police there told KGNS that a loud boom heard across the city Saturday came from the SpaceX flight returning to Earth. Laredo police said they confirmed it with Brownsville police. They said the South Texas corridor is part of the flight's return path and that the boom was heard in many South Texas communities.
Laredo is more than 150 miles from the launch pad.
SpaceX told residents to expect noise. In its pre-flight notice, the company said people in Cameron County and nearby areas could hear one or more sonic booms as the ship approached from the west. The company's stated position is direct: "The sonic boom does not present a health risk."
The day before was rougher. Friday's launch put the ship in orbit, but the Super Heavy booster never made it back to the tower. SpaceX's Dan Huot said the booster detected a guidance problem and aborted its own catch. It diverted offshore, and its flight termination system triggered. The booster exploded and came down in the Gulf off South Padre Island, ValleyCentral reported. CNN's live coverage described an ear-splitting sonic boom and birds scattering before the fireball.
So in 24 hours South Texas heard both halves of a Starship flight. One ended in a fireball offshore. One ended in a clean catch. Both were loud.
Now multiply.
THE NUMBERS ON THE TABLE
On October 14, the Federal Aviation Administration published a notice in the Federal Register. It said the agency will prepare a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement on a SpaceX proposal to expand operations at the Boca Chica launch site.
The proposal comes in two phases.
Phase 1: up to 100 launches and 200 landings a year. That is 100 landings each for the ship and the booster. Operations could happen on any day at any hour.
Phase 2: up to 456 launches and 912 landings a year. The FAA notice describes this as a mature program that would be implemented within several years. Launches could happen at any hour, Monday through Friday.
Do the math on Phase 2. 456 launches across the weekdays of a year is about 1.75 launches every weekday. 912 landings is about 17.5 a week.
One more number matters. For its analysis, the FAA notice assumes half of all launches and landings happen during the day, between 7 a.m. and 10 p.m. The other half are assumed to happen at night, between 10 p.m. and 7 a.m.
The current ceiling is 25 launches and 50 landings a year. The FAA approved that level in May 2025. SpaceX is nowhere near it. KRGV reported in mid-October that the company had launched three times from Starbase this year. Flight 15 adds one.
None of the expansion is approved. The notice starts a study and a public comment period. It does not change the license.
The FAA is also not weighing another location. According to the notice, the only alternative under review is "no action," which means SpaceX keeps operating at 25 launches a year. The agency says other sites would not meet the project's purpose because Boca Chica is already approved and built.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR CAMERON COUNTY
Start with noise, because it has been measured.
After Starship's fifth flight in October 2024, a Brigham Young University team led by physicist Kent Gee published readings from eight monitoring stations. They ran from the south end of South Padre Island, about six miles from the pad, to a home in Brownsville about 22 miles away. The booster's return produced the largest pressure event. The team reported sonic boom overpressures beyond six miles that were 1 to 4 pounds per square foot higher than the FAA had predicted in its 2022 and 2024 environmental assessments. A sensor on a South Padre Island hotel roof recorded about 11 pounds per square foot.
The study's authors wrote that overpressures near 10 pounds per square foot at Port Isabel and the south end of the Island carry a greater risk of structural damage such as broken glass. Gee has also said the overall threat to people and property is likely small, and that more data is needed.
Two cautions belong here. Those readings came from a booster return, not a ship return like Saturday's. The ship is the smaller vehicle. No independent measurements of Saturday's boom have been published yet. Until they are, nobody can say with data how Saturday compares.
Port Isabel has done its own monitoring. A consultant hired by the city, Terracon, recorded a peak of 144.6 decibels during the same 2024 flight, according to City Manager Jared Hockema. Hockema told CNN this week that the top of the Port Isabel lighthouse sways during some launches. He also said he is not opposed to SpaceX.
It does not take a flight to be felt. On July 10, the City of Brownsville issued a news release confirming that noise and shaking reported by residents came from a routine SpaceX engine test, not an earthquake, KRGV reported.
Then there are the damage claims. CNN reported this week that dozens of local residents are suing SpaceX, alleging property damage from launches. Those are allegations. They have not been proven in court. SpaceX has consistently said sonic booms pose no health or safety risk, and Elon Musk has said Starship launches cause no damage. The FAA does require SpaceX to carry insurance for sonic boom damage claims, according to a 2024 license update.
Next is the beach.
State Highway 4 is the only road to Boca Chica Beach. Since September 1, 2025, the power to close it for launches has belonged to the City of Starbase, not Cameron County. That change came through House Bill 5246. County officials opposed it.
For Flight 15, the Starbase closure order shut the beach and highway from 11 a.m. to 11:30 p.m. on Friday and again on Saturday. That is 12.5 hours each day for one flight.
This is analysis, not a prediction: a schedule of 1.75 launches every weekday cannot coexist with 12.5-hour closures per flight. Something has to give. Either closures get much shorter, or the public gets much less beach. South Padre Island resident Tommy Saenz raised that concern to KRGV in October. "They need to look at environmental impact, human impact, and South Padre's impact," he said.
Then there is the money.
A Starbase impact report released by Cameron County Judge Eddie Trevino Jr. in October 2025 put SpaceX's gross economic output in the region at more than $13 billion for 2024 through 2026. It claimed more than 24,000 local jobs supported and $305 million in indirect taxes. Readers should know the source. The report was produced by SpaceX.
That is the trade Cameron County leaders have embraced for a decade. More flights mean more jobs, suppliers and tourists. More flights also mean more noise, more closures and more pressure on the coast. The FAA study is where that trade gets written down.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE REST OF THE VALLEY
Saturday changed the geography of this story.
Until now, Starship noise was mostly a coastal issue. Boosters come back from the Gulf. But a ship returning from orbit comes from the west. SpaceX said Flight 15's ship would cross northern Mexico and southern Texas, steer around the major cities of the Rio Grande Valley, pass north of South Padre Island, turn over the Gulf and come back to the pad.
That is a flight path over South Texas, not just beside it. Laredo's police department spent part of Saturday explaining a boom to its own residents.
One return on a Saturday afternoon is an event. The proposal under study allows for hundreds of ship returns a year, with half assumed to come at night. For Hidalgo, Willacy, Starr and Webb counties, the questions are basic. How far inland do the booms carry? How often? At what hour?
The FAA notice also says temporary airspace closures are part of the federal action under review. The Valley has three commercial airports. How hundreds of launch and landing windows a year would fit around their schedules is something the study will need to answer.
The review will cover noise, air quality, wildlife, coastal resources, water, land use, historic sites, socioeconomics and children's health and safety, according to the notice. The FAA will also consult with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and NOAA Fisheries under the Endangered Species Act.
THE MEETINGS LEFT TOWN
The FAA originally scheduled four in-person meetings. Two were set for November 17 at Texas Southmost College in Brownsville. Two were set for November 19 at the Port Isabel Event and Cultural Center.
On November 10, the agency published an update. All five meetings are now virtual. The FAA's project page does not give a reason.
The agency extended the comment deadline by a week, from November 30 to December 7.
So the communities closest to the pad will not get a room. They will get a Zoom link. Residents without reliable internet, and residents more comfortable speaking in person, are the ones with the most to lose from that change.
HOW TO COMMENT
Virtual meetings, all Central time. Registration is required. Links are on the FAA project page at faa.gov/space/stakeholder_engagement/spacex_starship.
Tuesday, November 17: 1 to 3 p.m. and 5:30 to 7:30 p.m.
Wednesday, November 18: 5:30 to 7:30 p.m.
Thursday, November 19: 1 to 3 p.m. and 5:30 to 7:30 p.m.
The FAA presents for the first half hour. Speakers then get up to three minutes each. The same information is presented at every meeting. Materials are available in Spanish.
Written comments: regulations.gov, Docket No. FAA-2026-12808.
By mail: Amy Hanson, FAA Environmental Protection Specialist, SpaceX Boca Chica, c/o Kimley-Horn, 767 Eustis Street, Suite 100, St. Paul, MN 55114.
Deadline: December 7, 2026. The FAA warns that comments, including personal information, may be made public.
THE QUESTIONS THAT MATTER
Will the FAA measure sonic booms from ship returns across South Texas, or rely on models?
Will it study what repeated booms do to homes, not just how loud they are?
How many hours a year will Boca Chica Beach be closed at 100 launches? At 456?
What happens to sleep in Port Isabel, Laguna Vista and Brownsville if half the flights come between 10 p.m. and 7 a.m.?
Who pays if a window breaks in a county the rocket only flew over?
And why are the people who heard Saturday's boom being asked to weigh in through a webinar?
Saturday was one landing. The study is about up to 912 a year. The comment period closes December 7.
SOURCES
FAA project page, SpaceX Starship Super Heavy Project at the Boca Chica Launch Site (updated Nov. 10, 2026)
Federal Register, Notice of Intent, Docket FAA-2026-12808 (Oct. 14, 2026)
Federal Register, updated notice moving meetings virtual and extending comments (Nov. 10, 2026)
KGNS, Laredo police say boom came from SpaceX flight returning to Earth (Nov. 14, 2026)
ValleyCentral, Historic landing: SpaceX Starship 15 returns to Starbase (Nov. 14, 2026)
Space.com, SpaceX catches Starship upper stage for 1st time ever (Nov. 14, 2026)
MyRGV / Brownsville Herald, Starship sticks landing (Nov. 14, 2026)
CNN live coverage, Starship Flight 15 (Nov. 13-14, 2026)
Dan Huot booster explanation, as quoted by Hot Air (Nov. 14, 2026). Secondary source. Confirm against the SpaceX webcast before quoting directly.
SpaceX Flight 15 pre-flight notice, as republished by Texas Border Business
KRGV, FAA reviewing SpaceX proposal for nearly 500 annual Starship launches (Oct. 14, 2026)
KRGV, Reactions to shaking caused by static fire testing at Starbase (July 10, 2026)
KRGV, New law gives Starbase city leaders authority to close State Highway 4
City of Starbase, Beach and Road Access, Order No. 2026-25
BYU sonic boom study coverage (Brownsville Herald via AOL; CNN; New York Times via Seattle Times)
ValleyCentral, Cameron County judge releases 2026 Starbase impact report (Oct. 2025)
Satnews, phase cadence and May 2025 authorization
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ACCURACY AND LEGAL NOTES FOR JOSH (NOT FOR PUBLICATION)
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1. Property damage. The article reports the lawsuits as allegations and gives SpaceX's and Musk's denials. Do not shorten that passage in a way that states damage as fact. No court finding of launch-caused damage was located.
2. Saturday's boom. Two sourced reach claims: ValleyCentral's "at least 30 miles," and Laredo police (via KGNS) confirming the boom was heard in Laredo and "many South Texas communities." The Laredo claim is attributed to police in the text. The article does not name Hidalgo County cities as having heard it, because no source located does. If you have firsthand accounts, attribute them to the people who reported them.
3. Laredo distance. "More than 150 miles" is a straight-line estimate from the launch pad, not a sourced figure. It is conservative. Road distance from Brownsville is about 200 miles.
4. Booster versus ship. All published overpressure data (BYU, Terracon) is from the October 2024 booster return. The article says so. Do not present those numbers as measurements of Saturday's ship return.
5. Health. The article asserts no health harm. SpaceX's "no health risk" statement is quoted. Gee's "likely small" risk assessment is included for balance.
6. Phase 2 landing split. The Federal Register notice gives 912 total landings. The FAA project page describes it as 456 each for ship and booster. The article says "hundreds of ship returns a year," which holds either way.
7. Beach closure math. Labeled as analysis in the text. The 12.5-hour figure is from Starbase Order No. 2026-25 for Flight 15. The FAA has published no closure-hour estimate for the expanded cadence.
8. Virtual meetings. The FAA gave no public reason for the change. The article does not speculate on motive. The closing question about the webinar is framed as a question.
9. Economic figures. Attributed to a report produced by SpaceX and released by the county judge. They are the company's own numbers, not an independent audit.
10. Launch count. "Three launches this year" is KRGV's figure as of mid-October. Flight 15 makes at least four.
11. Left out on purpose. Coverage mentions a nationwide FAA ground stop on Saturday. No source located ties it to the Starship return, so it is not in the piece.
12. Texas Penal Code 42.06. Nothing in the piece reports an emergency or danger that is not sourced. No exposure identified.
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