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Starbase Wants Up to 456 Launches a Year. The Public Gets Its Say in November.

22 hours ago
5 min read

456.


That is how many Starship launches a year SpaceX wants federal regulators to consider for Starbase, its launch site at the end of State Highway 4 in Cameron County.


Today the site is permitted for 25. So far in 2026, it has launched three.


The Federal Aviation Administration has opened a formal environmental review of the proposal. Public meetings begin Nov. 17 in Brownsville. Written comments are due Nov. 30.


The review arrives as SpaceX prepares the most ambitious flight in the program's history. On Flight 15, targeted for November, the company plans to try catching both the Super Heavy booster and the Starship upper stage with the launch tower's mechanical arms. No one has ever caught a Starship upper stage.


Here is where both stand, and what they could mean for the people who live closest to the pad.


FLIGHT 15: THE FIRST DOUBLE CATCH ATTEMPT


On SpaceX's Oct. 20 earnings call, Elon Musk said Flight 15 is expected next month and that the company is "going to attempt to catch both the booster and the ship," according to reporting by Teslarati and others.


SpaceX has not announced a launch date. NASASpaceFlight reported that internal planning shows a no-earlier-than date of Nov. 8. Musk has said he wants the flight to happen before Thanksgiving. Treat any specific date as unofficial until SpaceX or the FAA posts it.


The flight will use Booster 22 and Ship 42 from Pad 2, according to the Starbase Events flight tracker. Ship 42 completed fit tests with the tower arms on Sept. 11 and 12.


Booster 22 conducted a static fire at Pad 2 on Oct. 25, according to footage posted by RGV Aerial Photography.


SpaceX has caught a Super Heavy booster with the tower three times, on Flights 5, 7 and 8. It has never caught a ship. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said the company expects its FAA license to cover a tower catch of both stages. As of this week, the Starbase Events tracker lists no FAA license yet issued for the flight.


If it works, SpaceX would recover an entire Starship stack for inspection and reuse. That is the core of the company's argument that Starship can fly frequently and cheaply.


FLIGHT 14: FIRST ORBIT, SHORTER THAN PLANNED


The last launch from Starbase came Sept. 28. Flight 14, using Booster 21 and Ship 41, became the first Starship to reach orbit, according to launch records compiled by KeepTrack. It deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites before splashing down in the Pacific.


The flight ended earlier than its planned profile of roughly six orbits, according to Gulf News and other coverage of the mission. The booster was not caught.


SpaceX-style rocket launches from seaside pad at sunset, bright flame and smoke over a coastal city and ocean.
SpaceX Boca Chica and South Padre Island

THE FAA REVIEW: FROM 25 TO 456


On Oct. 14, the FAA published a notice in the Federal Register that it will prepare a programmatic environmental impact statement for SpaceX's proposal at Starbase. The docket number is FAA-2026-12808.


The current permit, set by a 2025 environmental review, allows up to 25 launches and 50 landings a year: 25 Starship landings and 25 Super Heavy landings.


SpaceX's proposal comes in two phases, according to the notice as summarized by multiple outlets:


Phase 1: Up to 100 launches and 200 landings a year, on any day and at any time.


Phase 2: Up to 456 launches and 912 landings a year.


The notice also covers an expansion of the locations where Starship can land or be expended, according to the Space Law Journal.


For scale, the site has never hosted more than five launches in a single year.


ANALYSIS: 100 launches a year averages out to about two a week. 456 a year averages out to about nine a week, or more than one a day.


The FAA has stressed that opening this review is not an approval. The agency said it will study effects on air quality, wildlife, coastal resources, hazardous materials, historic and cultural resources, land use, noise, visual effects and water resources, and compare them against a no-action option, according to KRGV. A draft statement will follow, with another round of public comment.


HOW TO WEIGH IN


The FAA will hold public scoping meetings with English-Spanish translation:


Monday, Nov. 17, in Brownsville. Sessions from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. and 5:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. at Texas Southmost College's Jacob Brown Auditorium, 600 International Blvd.


Tuesday, Nov. 18, virtual.


Wednesday, Nov. 19, in Port Isabel. Same session times.


Written comments are due Nov. 30, 2026, on regulations.gov under docket FAA-2026-12808, or by mail.


The FAA plans to post its meeting presentation in English and Spanish by Nov. 10, according to the Starbase Events tracker.


Scoping is the stage where the public tells the FAA what it should study. Comments that name specific concerns, such as noise at a particular address, beach access dates, traffic on Highway 4, or effects on a specific species or fishery, are more useful to the agency than general support or opposition.


SpaceX Boca Chica AI Enhanced
SpaceX Boca Chica AI Enhanced

WHAT IT COULD MEAN CLOSER TO HOME


Launch rates are not an abstraction for Cameron County. Each launch and many tests bring closures of Boca Chica Beach and Highway 4, issued by the City of Starbase, sometimes on short notice.


The infrastructure around the site is already growing. TxDOT has a $192.4 million project in its 2027 Unified Transportation Program to widen State Highway 4 between Brownsville and Starbase, according to the Texas Tribune.


Water is part of the picture too. At an Aug. 29 Brownsville City Commission meeting, a SpaceX executive said the company's operations in the area use about 2 million gallons of water a day. That same night, the commission approved a deal in which SpaceX committed up to $220 million for city water projects in exchange for the disannexation of 444.45 acres.


ANALYSIS: The FAA's review will set the outer limit on how often rockets fly from Boca Chica. Every other local question, from beach closures to road traffic to water demand, scales with that number. Phase 1 alone would mean four times the current permitted launches. That is why the next 30 days of public comment matter for Brownsville, Port Isabel, South Padre Island and Laguna Vista, not just for SpaceX.


WHAT WE DON'T KNOW YET


SpaceX has not published an official Flight 15 date or flight plan.


The FAA has not issued, as of this week, a license covering a ship catch.


The FAA has not decided anything about the 456-launch proposal. It has only begun studying it.


This article will be updated when SpaceX announces a Flight 15 date.


SOURCES


Starbase Events, Flight 15 tracker: https://www.starbaseevents.com/flights/15

Starbase Events, FAA launch study and meetings: https://www.starbaseevents.com/faa-launch-study

Tech Insider (citing Teslarati), Musk earnings call remarks: https://tech-insider.org/spacex-starship-flight-15-november-dual-catch-2026/

Basenor (citing RGV Aerial Photography), Booster 22 static fire: https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/starship-flight-15-prep-4-details-that-matter

KeepTrack, Flight 14 launch record: https://keeptrack.space/launch/2026-225

City of Brownsville, Project Quantum: https://www.brownsvilletx.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?aid=3423

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