Texas Early Vote, Day 8: Democratic Primary Voters Hold a Narrow Edge as Turnout Trails 2024
More Texans with a Democratic primary history have cast early ballots so far this fall than Texans with a Republican primary history. But the margin is narrow, most early voters can't be matched to either party, and turnout statewide is running well behind the 2024 presidential election.
That is the picture from an early-voting data summary circulating this week that combines voter-file matching from the Texas Early Vote Tracker with county ballot counts compiled by ColdSpark. The figures are unofficial, and the summary's own authors warn that they cannot tell anyone how Texans are actually voting.
Early voting for the Nov. 3 general election began Monday, Oct. 19, and runs through Friday, Oct. 30.
WHAT THE PRIMARY-HISTORY NUMBERS SHOW
The summary matched about 4.07 million fall early-voting records against the list of people who voted early or by mail in the March 2026 primaries. The breakdown:
Democratic primary only: 882,473
Republican primary only: 814,508
Both primary histories: 445
No matched primary history: 2,372,253
Total fall records: 4,069,679
That gives early voters with a Democratic primary history a net advantage of 67,965 over those with a Republican primary history, across the 245 counties with usable matching data. Among voters tied to only one primary, the split is roughly 52 percent Democratic to 48 percent Republican. Nine of Texas' 254 counties lacked a usable matching entry.
I checked the arithmetic. The four categories add up to the stated total, the net advantage is correct, and the 52/48 split holds.
WHAT THOSE NUMBERS DO NOT SHOW
Several limits matter before anyone reads this as a lead.
First, a primary history is not a November vote. Someone who voted in the Democratic primary in March can vote for Republicans in November, and the reverse. Texas has open primaries, and crossover voting happens.
Second, the match only covers people who voted early or by mail in March. Anyone who voted in the primary on Election Day, March 3, shows up as having no matched history. That means the "no matched history" group of about 2.37 million is not a pool of independents. It includes partisans of both parties who simply voted on primary day, plus people who skipped the primary entirely.
Third, the 52/48 split may largely mirror the March primary itself. Democrats outvoted Republicans in early primary voting this spring, a first in years. TransparencyUSA's tracker counted 1,435,111 Democratic early primary voters, and a Center Square review put Republican early primary turnout near 1.3 million. If the people returning to vote early this fall look like the people who voted early in March, a Democratic tilt in the matched group is what you would expect. It does not by itself show new movement.
Fourth, the 445 voters listed with both primary histories is a small number, but worth noting. Texas law does not allow a voter to cast ballots in both parties' primaries in the same election cycle. Those records are most likely matching or data-entry artifacts, not double voting, and should not be treated as evidence of wrongdoing without verification from county election officials.
TURNOUT IS DOWN SHARPLY FROM 2024
The second half of the summary compares total county ballots, in person plus returned mail, on Day 8 of early voting this year (Oct. 26, 2026) against Day 8 in 2024 (Oct. 28, 2024).
Statewide, across all 254 counties, ballots are down 1,221,750, or 19.9 percent.
The summary sorts counties by how they voted in the 2016 and 2020 presidential races:
Counties that voted Democratic both years: down 375,593 ballots (-14.9%)
Counties that voted Republican both years: down 808,767 ballots (-27.3%)
Counties that flipped Democratic to Republican: down 5,399 ballots (-19.9%)
Counties that flipped Republican to Democratic: down 31,991 ballots (-5.0%)
The four groups add up to the statewide total. Historically Republican counties show a decline 433,174 ballots larger than historically Democratic counties, and that math also checks out.
The counties that moved from Republican to Democratic between 2016 and 2020 show the smallest drop, about 5 percent.
WHY THE 2024 COMPARISON NEEDS CONTEXT
A drop from 2024 is expected. 2024 was a presidential election, and 2026 is a midterm. Midterm turnout in Texas is routinely lower than presidential turnout. A 20 percent decline from a presidential year is not, by itself, a sign of unusually weak participation.
A comparison against the 2022 midterm would say more about whether turnout is strong or weak this year. That comparison is not part of this summary. Early local reporting did show several large North Texas counties posting record first-day early-vote numbers compared with 2022 while still trailing 2024.
The authors of the summary state it plainly: the gap between Republican and Democratic counties is a difference in how much turnout fell, not a Democratic vote gain. Larger Republican counties falling further does not tell us who those voters will choose, and it does not account for population changes, new polling locations, or shifts in how people vote between early voting and Election Day.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Here is what the data supports:
Confirmed in the data: Early voters with a March Democratic early/mail primary history outnumber those with a Republican one by about 68,000.
Confirmed in the data: Total early ballots through Day 8 are down about 20 percent from the same point in 2024, with steeper declines in historically Republican counties.
Not established: That Democrats are winning, gaining, or leading in actual votes. No public early-vote data in Texas shows how anyone voted.
Not established: That the turnout decline helps either party. Election Day voting could change the picture, and Republican voters in Texas have often leaned more toward Election Day voting in recent cycles.
Early voting continues through Friday, Oct. 30. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
All figures are unofficial and based on the report snapshot. Primary matching was updated Oct. 27, 2026, and the county ballot comparison runs through Oct. 26, 2026.
Sources: Texas Early Vote Tracker (primary history matches); ColdSpark (county ballot totals); TexasCounties.net citing the Texas Secretary of State (2016 and 2020 county results); TransparencyUSA and The Center Square (March 2026 primary early-vote totals); NBC DFW and Texas Public Radio (2026 early-voting dates and first-day turnout reporting).
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